I start each of these blog posts with the same caveat. A week in politics can be like a year in real life. That being said, one of the best indicators of who is going to win the White House are polls taken in June and July of the election year.
Things can change, but with all of these unforced Errors By The Trump campaign it seems like a gargantuan task for them to get there shit together in time for November. They need to ramp up staff very quickly. Anything you do quickly is prone to error. And unless someone falls on his sword for this speech disaster with Melania the Trump campaign is going to be in shambles for a while. Could not happen do are more deserving man and campaign.
Click on the link below for how the analysis of who is going to win is explained in detail by the New York Times.