The following is from marketwatch.com:
In prediction markets, traders bet on the outcome of events. The markets have, as the New York Times has written, a much better record than polls of pointing to the eventual nominee of a party.
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, is still seen as the candidate who wins the 2016 election. The former first lady, a Democrat, draws 53% on PredictWise compared with Trump’s 17%.
Cruz gets just 4% on PredictWise for the New Hampshire primary, scheduled for Feb. 9, but stands a better chance — 15% — in South Carolina. Still, Trump is favored to win each of those primaries.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is considering an independent bid for president, gets just 2% on PredictWise as the winner of the election. An early poll says there’s little difference in Bloomberg’s level of supportregardless of the nominees for the two main parties.